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Modelling technical progress: an application of the stochastic trend model to UK energy demand

Research output: Working paperDiscussion paper

Standard

Modelling technical progress: an application of the stochastic trend model to UK energy demand. / Hunt, Lester; Judge, Guy; Ninomiya, Y.

Guildford : Surrey Energy Economics Centre, 2000. (Surrey Energy Economics Discussion paper Series SEEDS; No. SEEDS99).

Research output: Working paperDiscussion paper

Harvard

Hunt, L, Judge, G & Ninomiya, Y 2000 'Modelling technical progress: an application of the stochastic trend model to UK energy demand' Surrey Energy Economics Discussion paper Series SEEDS, no. SEEDS99, Surrey Energy Economics Centre, Guildford. <http://www.seec.surrey.ac.uk/research/SEEDS/SEEDS99.pdf>

APA

Hunt, L., Judge, G., & Ninomiya, Y. (2000). Modelling technical progress: an application of the stochastic trend model to UK energy demand. (Surrey Energy Economics Discussion paper Series SEEDS; No. SEEDS99). Surrey Energy Economics Centre. http://www.seec.surrey.ac.uk/research/SEEDS/SEEDS99.pdf

Vancouver

Hunt L, Judge G, Ninomiya Y. Modelling technical progress: an application of the stochastic trend model to UK energy demand. Guildford: Surrey Energy Economics Centre. 2000. (Surrey Energy Economics Discussion paper Series SEEDS; SEEDS99).

Author

Hunt, Lester ; Judge, Guy ; Ninomiya, Y. / Modelling technical progress: an application of the stochastic trend model to UK energy demand. Guildford : Surrey Energy Economics Centre, 2000. (Surrey Energy Economics Discussion paper Series SEEDS; SEEDS99).

Bibtex

@techreport{b7036356296648cd8505c21078f5f519,
title = "Modelling technical progress: an application of the stochastic trend model to UK energy demand",
abstract = "The precise role of technical progress in estimated energy demand functions has not been well researched. Traditionally a deterministic time trend has been used, implicitly assuming technical progress continues as a fixed rate over time. In this paper, the structural time series model is employed allowing for a stochastic time trend and stochastic seasonal dummies. Therefore, technical progress and seasonal variation are treated as unobservable components that evolve over time. The conventional deterministic trend model is a restricted case of the structural time series model and found not to be accepted by the data for a number of energy types. Energy demand functions for a variety of energy types are estimated for the UK using unadjusted quarterly data. It is found that technical progress in energy usage does not always exhibit a deterministic trend pattern as the conventional model assumes. It often fluctuates over time and is likely to be affected by a range of exogenous factors but also by changes in energy prices (and possibly income also).",
author = "Lester Hunt and Guy Judge and Y. Ninomiya",
note = "Institution: University of Surrey. Department: Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), Department of Economics.",
year = "2000",
language = "English",
series = "Surrey Energy Economics Discussion paper Series SEEDS",
publisher = "Surrey Energy Economics Centre",
number = "SEEDS99",
type = "WorkingPaper",
institution = "Surrey Energy Economics Centre",

}

RIS

TY - UNPB

T1 - Modelling technical progress: an application of the stochastic trend model to UK energy demand

AU - Hunt, Lester

AU - Judge, Guy

AU - Ninomiya, Y.

N1 - Institution: University of Surrey. Department: Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), Department of Economics.

PY - 2000

Y1 - 2000

N2 - The precise role of technical progress in estimated energy demand functions has not been well researched. Traditionally a deterministic time trend has been used, implicitly assuming technical progress continues as a fixed rate over time. In this paper, the structural time series model is employed allowing for a stochastic time trend and stochastic seasonal dummies. Therefore, technical progress and seasonal variation are treated as unobservable components that evolve over time. The conventional deterministic trend model is a restricted case of the structural time series model and found not to be accepted by the data for a number of energy types. Energy demand functions for a variety of energy types are estimated for the UK using unadjusted quarterly data. It is found that technical progress in energy usage does not always exhibit a deterministic trend pattern as the conventional model assumes. It often fluctuates over time and is likely to be affected by a range of exogenous factors but also by changes in energy prices (and possibly income also).

AB - The precise role of technical progress in estimated energy demand functions has not been well researched. Traditionally a deterministic time trend has been used, implicitly assuming technical progress continues as a fixed rate over time. In this paper, the structural time series model is employed allowing for a stochastic time trend and stochastic seasonal dummies. Therefore, technical progress and seasonal variation are treated as unobservable components that evolve over time. The conventional deterministic trend model is a restricted case of the structural time series model and found not to be accepted by the data for a number of energy types. Energy demand functions for a variety of energy types are estimated for the UK using unadjusted quarterly data. It is found that technical progress in energy usage does not always exhibit a deterministic trend pattern as the conventional model assumes. It often fluctuates over time and is likely to be affected by a range of exogenous factors but also by changes in energy prices (and possibly income also).

M3 - Discussion paper

T3 - Surrey Energy Economics Discussion paper Series SEEDS

BT - Modelling technical progress: an application of the stochastic trend model to UK energy demand

PB - Surrey Energy Economics Centre

CY - Guildford

ER -

ID: 131811