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Prediction of soft-cliff retreat with accelerating sea-level rise

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  • Malcolm Bray
  • J. Hooke
Reliable estimates of future cliff recession are needed to assess coastal vulnerability and evaluate management policies with regard to the widespread sea-level rise thought likely to result from global warming. A research gap is identified in providing appropriate predictive methods. This paper reviews the possible effects of sea-level rise upon soft-rock cliffs over a 50-100 year planning timescale. It evaluates different methods of analysing historical recession and highlights the main assumptions and rules governing future extrapolation of retreat rates. Simple predictive models including a modification of the Bruun Rule are developed and applied to estimate cliff sensitivity to sea-level rise in southern England.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)453-467
Number of pages15
JournalJournal of Coastal Research
Volume13
Issue number2
Publication statusPublished - 1997

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