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Re-examining Bitcoin volatility: a CAViaR-based approach

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The article aims to explore the heterogeneous feature in the determination of Bitcoin volatility using a Markov regime-switching model and test its forecasting ability. The forecasting methodology of the risk measurement of Bitcoin’s returns is based on the Conditional Autoregressive Value at Risk models (CAViaR) approach. Our results show that Bitcoin’s volatility is significantly related to the volatility of the crypto-asset’s return and the main determinants of volatility are speculation, investor attention, market interoperability and the interaction between speculation and market interoperability. In addition, we present evidence that investors’ attention is the main source of volatility. Speculation and the interaction term are related in a “U-shaped” form, whereas investor attention and market interoperability show a linear trend on the volatility of Bitcoin.
Original languageEnglish
JournalEmerging Markets Finance and Trade
Early online date24 Jan 2021
Publication statusEarly online - 24 Jan 2021


  • Re-examining Bitcoin volatility

    Rights statement: This is an Accepted Manuscript of an article published in Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, (2021), available online:

    Accepted author manuscript (Post-print), 1.54 MB, PDF document

    Due to publisher’s copyright restrictions, this document is not freely available to download from this website until: 24/07/22

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