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Scenario archetypes: converging rather than diverging themes

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Standard

Scenario archetypes : converging rather than diverging themes. / Hunt, Dexter V. L.; Lombardi, D. Rachel; Atkinson, Stuart; Barber, Austin R. G.; Barnes, Matthew; Boyko, Christopher T.; Brown, Julie; Bryson, John; Butler, David; Caputo, Silvio; Caserio, Maria; Coles, Richard ; Cooper, Rachel F. D.; Farmani, Raziyeh; Gaterell, Mark Robert; Hale, James; Hales, Chantal; Hewitt, C. Nicholas; Jankovic, Lubo; Jefferson, I.; Leach, J.; MacKenzie, A. Rob; Memon, Fayyaz Ali; Sadler, Jon P.; Weingaertner, Carina; Whyatt, J. Duncan; Rogers, Christopher D. F.

In: Sustainability, Vol. 4, No. 4, 2012, p. 740-772.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Harvard

Hunt, DVL, Lombardi, DR, Atkinson, S, Barber, ARG, Barnes, M, Boyko, CT, Brown, J, Bryson, J, Butler, D, Caputo, S, Caserio, M, Coles, R, Cooper, RFD, Farmani, R, Gaterell, MR, Hale, J, Hales, C, Hewitt, CN, Jankovic, L, Jefferson, I, Leach, J, MacKenzie, AR, Memon, FA, Sadler, JP, Weingaertner, C, Whyatt, JD & Rogers, CDF 2012, 'Scenario archetypes: converging rather than diverging themes', Sustainability, vol. 4, no. 4, pp. 740-772. https://doi.org/10.3390/su4040740

APA

Hunt, D. V. L., Lombardi, D. R., Atkinson, S., Barber, A. R. G., Barnes, M., Boyko, C. T., Brown, J., Bryson, J., Butler, D., Caputo, S., Caserio, M., Coles, R., Cooper, R. F. D., Farmani, R., Gaterell, M. R., Hale, J., Hales, C., Hewitt, C. N., Jankovic, L., ... Rogers, C. D. F. (2012). Scenario archetypes: converging rather than diverging themes. Sustainability, 4(4), 740-772. https://doi.org/10.3390/su4040740

Vancouver

Hunt DVL, Lombardi DR, Atkinson S, Barber ARG, Barnes M, Boyko CT et al. Scenario archetypes: converging rather than diverging themes. Sustainability. 2012;4(4):740-772. https://doi.org/10.3390/su4040740

Author

Hunt, Dexter V. L. ; Lombardi, D. Rachel ; Atkinson, Stuart ; Barber, Austin R. G. ; Barnes, Matthew ; Boyko, Christopher T. ; Brown, Julie ; Bryson, John ; Butler, David ; Caputo, Silvio ; Caserio, Maria ; Coles, Richard ; Cooper, Rachel F. D. ; Farmani, Raziyeh ; Gaterell, Mark Robert ; Hale, James ; Hales, Chantal ; Hewitt, C. Nicholas ; Jankovic, Lubo ; Jefferson, I. ; Leach, J. ; MacKenzie, A. Rob ; Memon, Fayyaz Ali ; Sadler, Jon P. ; Weingaertner, Carina ; Whyatt, J. Duncan ; Rogers, Christopher D. F. / Scenario archetypes : converging rather than diverging themes. In: Sustainability. 2012 ; Vol. 4, No. 4. pp. 740-772.

Bibtex

@article{76bda83415be49fe92d5b3e6e7d3d674,
title = "Scenario archetypes: converging rather than diverging themes",
abstract = "Future scenarios provide challenging, plausible and relevant stories about how the future could unfold. Urban Futures (UF) research has identified a substantial set (>450) of seemingly disparate scenarios published over the period 1997–2011 and within this research, a sub-set of >160 scenarios has been identified (and categorized) based on their narratives according to the structure first proposed by the Global Scenario Group (GSG) in 1997; three world types (Business as Usual, Barbarization, and Great Transitions) and six scenarios, two for each world type (Policy Reform—PR, Market Forces—MF, Breakdown—B, Fortress World—FW, Eco-Communalism—EC and New Sustainability Paradigm—NSP). It is suggested that four of these scenario archetypes (MF, PR, NSP and FW) are sufficiently distinct to facilitate active stakeholder engagement in futures thinking. Moreover they are accompanied by a well-established, internally consistent set of narratives that provide a deeper understanding of the key fundamental drivers (e.g., STEEP—Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental and Political) that could bring about realistic world changes through a push or a pull effect. This is testament to the original concept of the GSG scenarios and their development and refinement over a 16 year period. ",
author = "Hunt, {Dexter V. L.} and Lombardi, {D. Rachel} and Stuart Atkinson and Barber, {Austin R. G.} and Matthew Barnes and Boyko, {Christopher T.} and Julie Brown and John Bryson and David Butler and Silvio Caputo and Maria Caserio and Richard Coles and Cooper, {Rachel F. D.} and Raziyeh Farmani and Gaterell, {Mark Robert} and James Hale and Chantal Hales and Hewitt, {C. Nicholas} and Lubo Jankovic and I. Jefferson and J. Leach and MacKenzie, {A. Rob} and Memon, {Fayyaz Ali} and Sadler, {Jon P.} and Carina Weingaertner and Whyatt, {J. Duncan} and Rogers, {Christopher D. F.}",
year = "2012",
doi = "10.3390/su4040740",
language = "English",
volume = "4",
pages = "740--772",
journal = "Sustainability",
issn = "2071-1050",
publisher = "MDPI AG",
number = "4",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - Scenario archetypes

T2 - converging rather than diverging themes

AU - Hunt, Dexter V. L.

AU - Lombardi, D. Rachel

AU - Atkinson, Stuart

AU - Barber, Austin R. G.

AU - Barnes, Matthew

AU - Boyko, Christopher T.

AU - Brown, Julie

AU - Bryson, John

AU - Butler, David

AU - Caputo, Silvio

AU - Caserio, Maria

AU - Coles, Richard

AU - Cooper, Rachel F. D.

AU - Farmani, Raziyeh

AU - Gaterell, Mark Robert

AU - Hale, James

AU - Hales, Chantal

AU - Hewitt, C. Nicholas

AU - Jankovic, Lubo

AU - Jefferson, I.

AU - Leach, J.

AU - MacKenzie, A. Rob

AU - Memon, Fayyaz Ali

AU - Sadler, Jon P.

AU - Weingaertner, Carina

AU - Whyatt, J. Duncan

AU - Rogers, Christopher D. F.

PY - 2012

Y1 - 2012

N2 - Future scenarios provide challenging, plausible and relevant stories about how the future could unfold. Urban Futures (UF) research has identified a substantial set (>450) of seemingly disparate scenarios published over the period 1997–2011 and within this research, a sub-set of >160 scenarios has been identified (and categorized) based on their narratives according to the structure first proposed by the Global Scenario Group (GSG) in 1997; three world types (Business as Usual, Barbarization, and Great Transitions) and six scenarios, two for each world type (Policy Reform—PR, Market Forces—MF, Breakdown—B, Fortress World—FW, Eco-Communalism—EC and New Sustainability Paradigm—NSP). It is suggested that four of these scenario archetypes (MF, PR, NSP and FW) are sufficiently distinct to facilitate active stakeholder engagement in futures thinking. Moreover they are accompanied by a well-established, internally consistent set of narratives that provide a deeper understanding of the key fundamental drivers (e.g., STEEP—Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental and Political) that could bring about realistic world changes through a push or a pull effect. This is testament to the original concept of the GSG scenarios and their development and refinement over a 16 year period.

AB - Future scenarios provide challenging, plausible and relevant stories about how the future could unfold. Urban Futures (UF) research has identified a substantial set (>450) of seemingly disparate scenarios published over the period 1997–2011 and within this research, a sub-set of >160 scenarios has been identified (and categorized) based on their narratives according to the structure first proposed by the Global Scenario Group (GSG) in 1997; three world types (Business as Usual, Barbarization, and Great Transitions) and six scenarios, two for each world type (Policy Reform—PR, Market Forces—MF, Breakdown—B, Fortress World—FW, Eco-Communalism—EC and New Sustainability Paradigm—NSP). It is suggested that four of these scenario archetypes (MF, PR, NSP and FW) are sufficiently distinct to facilitate active stakeholder engagement in futures thinking. Moreover they are accompanied by a well-established, internally consistent set of narratives that provide a deeper understanding of the key fundamental drivers (e.g., STEEP—Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental and Political) that could bring about realistic world changes through a push or a pull effect. This is testament to the original concept of the GSG scenarios and their development and refinement over a 16 year period.

U2 - 10.3390/su4040740

DO - 10.3390/su4040740

M3 - Article

VL - 4

SP - 740

EP - 772

JO - Sustainability

JF - Sustainability

SN - 2071-1050

IS - 4

ER -

ID: 1783696