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The Quest for Banking Stability in the Euro Area: The Role of Government Interventions

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We build upon a Markov-Switching Bayesian Vector Autoregression (MSBVAR) model to study how the credit default swaps market in the euro area becomes an important chain in the propagation of shocks through the entire financial system. The study sheds light on the regime-dependent interconnectedness between the risk of investing in banking and public sector bonds and provides novel evidence that a rise in sovereign debt, due to the countercyclical fiscal policy measures, is perceived by stock market investors as a burden on growth prospects. We also document that government interventions in the banking sector deteriorate the credit risk of sovereign debt. Higher risk premium required by investors for holding riskier government bonds depresses the sovereign debt market, it impairs banks’ balance sheets, and it depresses the collateral value of loans leading to bank retrenchment. The ensuing two-way banking-fiscal feedback loop indicates that government interventions do not necessarily stabilize the banking sector.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)111-133
JournalJournal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money
Early online date1 Sep 2015
Publication statusPublished - Jan 2016


  • KIZYS_2015_cright_JIFMIM_The_quest_for_financial_stability_in_the_euro_area

    Rights statement: NOTICE: this is the author’s version of a work that was accepted for publication in Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions & Money. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. A definitive version was subsequently published in Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions & Money, 2015, DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2015.09.001

    Accepted author manuscript (Post-print), 924 KB, PDF document

    Licence: CC BY-ND

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