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Tibetan Plateau amplification of climate extremes under global warming of 1.5 °C, 2 °C and 3 °C

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Tibetan Plateau amplification of climate extremes under global warming of 1.5 °C, 2 °C and 3 °C. / You, Qinglong; Wu, Fangying; Shen, Liuchen; Pepin, Nick; Jiang, Zhihong; Kang, Shichang.

In: Global and Planetary Change, 19.06.2020.

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You, Qinglong ; Wu, Fangying ; Shen, Liuchen ; Pepin, Nick ; Jiang, Zhihong ; Kang, Shichang. / Tibetan Plateau amplification of climate extremes under global warming of 1.5 °C, 2 °C and 3 °C. In: Global and Planetary Change. 2020.

Bibtex

@article{74e7bc0b333a496dac1902963cb0c8f1,
title = "Tibetan Plateau amplification of climate extremes under global warming of 1.5 °C, 2 °C and 3 °C",
abstract = "Global warming may increase the frequency of climate extremes, but systematic examinations at different temperature thresholds are unknown over the Tibetan Plateau (TP). Changes in surface temperature and precipitation extreme indices derived from a multi-model ensemble mean (MMEM) of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models are examined under global warming of 1.5 °C (RCP2.6), 2 °C (RCP4.5) and 3 °C (RCP8.5) above pre-industrial levels. The TP amplification of future temperature and precipitation changes is evident for all three scenarios, with greater trend magnitudes in extreme indices than those for the whole China, regions between 25°N and 40°N, Northern Hemisphere (land only), Northern Hemisphere and the global mean. The TP amplification is also projected to intensify in each scenario, resulting in faster changes in intensity, duration and frequency of climate extremes. There appears to be greater difference for precipitation-based indices between 2 °C and 3 °C than for temperature, and the differences between 1.5 °C and 2 °C are less dramatic. Overall changes in climate extremes at 2 °C are greater than at 1.5 °C, but differences are less discernible between 3 °C and 2 °C. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov test between simulated and scaled temperature distributions shows that accelerated warming over the TP from 1.5 °C to 2 °C follows a broadly linear response, but the nonlinearity occurs between 2 °C and 3 °C. This suggests that the rate of warming might make a large difference to the future TP amplification at different thresholds.",
author = "Qinglong You and Fangying Wu and Liuchen Shen and Nick Pepin and Zhihong Jiang and Shichang Kang",
year = "2020",
month = jun,
day = "19",
doi = "10.1016/j.gloplacha.2020.103261",
language = "English",
journal = "Global and Planetary Change",
issn = "0921-8181",
publisher = "Elsevier",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - Tibetan Plateau amplification of climate extremes under global warming of 1.5 °C, 2 °C and 3 °C

AU - You, Qinglong

AU - Wu, Fangying

AU - Shen, Liuchen

AU - Pepin, Nick

AU - Jiang, Zhihong

AU - Kang, Shichang

PY - 2020/6/19

Y1 - 2020/6/19

N2 - Global warming may increase the frequency of climate extremes, but systematic examinations at different temperature thresholds are unknown over the Tibetan Plateau (TP). Changes in surface temperature and precipitation extreme indices derived from a multi-model ensemble mean (MMEM) of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models are examined under global warming of 1.5 °C (RCP2.6), 2 °C (RCP4.5) and 3 °C (RCP8.5) above pre-industrial levels. The TP amplification of future temperature and precipitation changes is evident for all three scenarios, with greater trend magnitudes in extreme indices than those for the whole China, regions between 25°N and 40°N, Northern Hemisphere (land only), Northern Hemisphere and the global mean. The TP amplification is also projected to intensify in each scenario, resulting in faster changes in intensity, duration and frequency of climate extremes. There appears to be greater difference for precipitation-based indices between 2 °C and 3 °C than for temperature, and the differences between 1.5 °C and 2 °C are less dramatic. Overall changes in climate extremes at 2 °C are greater than at 1.5 °C, but differences are less discernible between 3 °C and 2 °C. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov test between simulated and scaled temperature distributions shows that accelerated warming over the TP from 1.5 °C to 2 °C follows a broadly linear response, but the nonlinearity occurs between 2 °C and 3 °C. This suggests that the rate of warming might make a large difference to the future TP amplification at different thresholds.

AB - Global warming may increase the frequency of climate extremes, but systematic examinations at different temperature thresholds are unknown over the Tibetan Plateau (TP). Changes in surface temperature and precipitation extreme indices derived from a multi-model ensemble mean (MMEM) of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models are examined under global warming of 1.5 °C (RCP2.6), 2 °C (RCP4.5) and 3 °C (RCP8.5) above pre-industrial levels. The TP amplification of future temperature and precipitation changes is evident for all three scenarios, with greater trend magnitudes in extreme indices than those for the whole China, regions between 25°N and 40°N, Northern Hemisphere (land only), Northern Hemisphere and the global mean. The TP amplification is also projected to intensify in each scenario, resulting in faster changes in intensity, duration and frequency of climate extremes. There appears to be greater difference for precipitation-based indices between 2 °C and 3 °C than for temperature, and the differences between 1.5 °C and 2 °C are less dramatic. Overall changes in climate extremes at 2 °C are greater than at 1.5 °C, but differences are less discernible between 3 °C and 2 °C. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov test between simulated and scaled temperature distributions shows that accelerated warming over the TP from 1.5 °C to 2 °C follows a broadly linear response, but the nonlinearity occurs between 2 °C and 3 °C. This suggests that the rate of warming might make a large difference to the future TP amplification at different thresholds.

UR - https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0921818120301521

U2 - 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2020.103261

DO - 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2020.103261

M3 - Article

JO - Global and Planetary Change

JF - Global and Planetary Change

SN - 0921-8181

M1 - 103261

ER -

ID: 21346682