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Trade (dis)integration: the sudden death of NAFTA

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This paper uses a structural PVAR model to study the macroeconomic effects of trade disintegration among NAFTA members. The results reveal substantial asymmetric responses, showing that the US is the most affected economy from a sudden negative trade integration shock. Moreover, Canada and the US are found to be relatively more interconnected with each other compared to the Mexican economy. Our findings question the US decision to push for the renegotiation of the NAFTA agreement.
Original languageEnglish
Number of pages13
JournalOpen Economies Review
Early online date17 Dec 2019
Publication statusEarly online - 17 Dec 2019


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